Near-Simultaneous Worldwide Outbreak

Ten Steps
The first step in preparing for such an event is mental-emotional...




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● The cost of creating a virus is dropping expo­nentially. If Carlson’s Curve continues to hold true, the cost of a base pair will drop to between 1 and 10 cents within the decade. Thus, a researcher could order all the necessary base pairs to create a smallpox virus for between $2,000 and $20,000.7 The equipment he needs to assemble the virus will cost an additional $10,000.
● Bio-hackers are following in the footsteps of their info-hacker predecessors. They are setting up labs in their garages and creating products. Last year, a young British researcher invested $50K in equip­ment and produced two new biological products. He then sold his company, Agribiotics, for $22 mil­lion. We can assume hundreds, if not thousands, of young biology students are now in their basements attempting to make new biological products.

These discrete but related events mean that it is becoming increasingly easier for a small group and perhaps even an individual to create a virus such as smallpox and use it as a weapon.
Some experts have reassured us that even if a small group can create a biological virus, it is the testing, storage, and dissemination that are the most difficult steps in weaponizing a biological entity. They are right—if the creator uses traditional methods. How­ever, a person can avoid the requirement for testing by selecting a known lethal agent, such as smallpox. He already knows it can thrive outside the laboratory. Storage and dissemination problems can be solved by tapping into the increasing trend of suicide attacks worldwide—he simply injects the smallpox directly into suicide volunteers, who become both the storage and the dissemination systems.
Using a few volunteers and commercial airlines, a terrorist group can create a near-simultaneous worldwide outbreak of smallpox.

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