Virus Cycles, Country Test Cases

Like all natural systems and things, the Covid-19 flu follows a pattern or a cycle. It will spread, grow to a peak, and regress. It may return on regular cycles, similar to the seasonal flu during the winter.

Israeli Professor Shows Virus Follows Fixed Pattern

Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.

In other words, Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel has published data which shows the virus cycles in the same way regardless of lock downs and extreme "social distancing".


The top health regulator in Sweden allowed grown-ups to be grown-ups. The regulator recommended the Swedish economy and people's livelihoods be allowed to continue, with people exercising prudent behavior and caution.
Anders Tegnell, an epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency, calls out lockdowns as being based on no evidence of effectiveness. He goes on to call out the modeling of others as being incorrect, and shows modeling for Sweden.

‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy

... Sweden didn’t go into lockdown or impose strict social-distancing policies. Instead, it rolled out voluntary, ‘trust-based’ measures: it advised older people to avoid social contact and recommended that people work from home, wash their hands regularly and avoid non-essential travel. But borders and schools for under-16s remain open — as do many businesses, including restaurants and bars. ...

... We have looked at a number of European Union countries to see whether they have published any analysis of the effects of these measures before they were started and we saw almost none. ...

... The public-health agency has released detailed modelling on a region-by-region basis that comes to much less pessimistic conclusions than other researchers in terms of hospitalizations and deaths per thousand infections. ...

This will be a fascinating case study of these approaches: hysterical lock downs causing economic destruction versus prudent action by grown-ups and allowing the economy and schools and daily life to continue while the virus cycles.